While the crypto market has been in a quiet uptrend over the past couple of weeks amid statements from the U.S. administration indicating a softer tariff approach and a somewhat dovish Fed, more tariff-induced volatility could be on the cards with eight days to go before President Trump's "Liberation Day," according to analysts at K33.

BTC has gained nearly 5% over the past week, testing the $88,000 level, according to The Block's Bitcoin Price page, while the GMCI 30 index, representing a selection of the top cryptocurrencies, is up 8.6% during the past seven days. 

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also witnessed an eight-day positive streak of net inflows totaling $896.6 million, per data compiled by The Block — further highlighting subsiding sell-side pressure, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in a Tuesday report, alongside Strategy's resumption of substantial bitcoin purchases.

"The most severe de-risking in BTC seems to have played out, and the market is now resuming a wait-and-see approach," the analysts said, with CME traders remaining relatively passive and defensive while offshore traders are slightly more optimistic but "not full bull."

Despite the relative calm compared to the recent crypto price plunge, with seven-day volumes hitting five-month lows and muted leverage keeping bitcoin comfortably within the $80,000s, traders remain risk-averse as we get closer to April 2, the analysts argued. The event is "shaping up to be a momentous day for volatility" as tariffs remain the primary producer of market-moving headlines, they said.

BTCUSD vs. tariff headlines. Image: K33.

A softening stance or hard line from Trump?

April 2 is the scheduled date for Trump's major reciprocal tariffs announcement and is likely to reignite activity across both crypto and broader financial markets, Lunde and Zimmermann said. 

Clues on where tariffs are headed ahead of "Liberation Day" will likely be key price movers in the coming week, the analysts noted, with Goldman Sachs recently warning of a potential negative tariff surprise, citing Trump's tendency to use them as a negotiation tool to start from a position of strength.

"If Trump softens his stance, markets could rally. If he remains vague, volatility may hit both long and short positions. If he takes a hard line, a sharp decline—similar to past tariff-related drops—is likely," the analysts said. Alternatively, in a back-and-forth scenario, the market environment could remain similar to that of February and March following various announcements on tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico.

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